a. Objectives

In this proposal we will take the first steps towards building an integrated assessment model for China, CIAS-China. Building such a model involves three tasks (a) completing component models (b) creating scientific linkages between the component models (c) automating those linkages in the Community Integrated Assessment (CIAS) framework. The eventual purpose of this integrated model will be to allow scientists and stakeholders to better understand the implications of decisions made in managing climate change, land, energy, water and ecosystems in China. 

b. Fit to Fudan Tyndall Centre Research Strategy 

Our CIAS-based Integrated Assessment Model study is capable of integrating empirical observations with policy scenarios on climate, energy, economic and social dimensions based on systematic optimization techniques. Therefore, the output of this project is expected to serve as a synthetic platform linking Fudan Tyndall center’s interdisciplinary outputs and delivering comprehensive, dynamic and accurate perspectives on China’s low carbon transformation. 

c. Methods

This integrated assessment model study involves three key component model development tasks. The way that we develop the model is: a). Develop the Fudan Tyndall Centre’s global computable general equilibrium economic model (CGE), and compare with the UK Tyndall Centre’s macro-econometric model, E3MG; b). Link this to Fudan Tyndall Centre’s TIMES-China model to simulate the technical innovation roadmaps and key milestones with energy and low carbon techniques; c). Complete a scoping study to consider how all these components could be connected together automatically within the CIAS framework; d). Automate the linkage between the TIMES-China model and the climate models at UEA, which are named MAGICC6 and ClimGEN.

d. International Collaborations

UK Tyndall Center researcher: Dr. Rachel Warren; Dr. Annela Anger

e. Outputs.

a) A China integrated assessment model allowing for automatic linkages among macro module, energy technique module and climate module 

b) Demonstrate one example of a calculation of the feedback effect of climate change upon China’s energy use in the 21st century.

3) Specify the academic ways for linking the global CGE, the regional CGE, the TIMES-China model and the climate models all together within CIAS and to repeating the simulations for all four of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and all four of the population projections utilized in the new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) which are now available.